This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.
Quarterback
Top 200 ranking: 5
Weekly ranking: 13
Difference: -8
The Seahawks game in Arizona this week is expected to be hard fought. While not playing well offensively, the Cardinals have performed well against the pass defensively. Wilson's fantasy numbers have been buoyed the last two weeks with strong running outputs. We are not expecting him to have similar success against Arizona. In addition, Seattle plays better at home, and allows lesser teams to stick around in games while on the road.
Top 200 ranking: 8
Weekly ranking: 22
Difference: -14
Brady has done a great job getting the Patriots off to a 5-1 record while waiting for key performers to return from injury. At this time, we do not expect Danny Amendola or Rob Gronkowski to play against the Jets. This game has the look of a defensive showdown, one in which Brady may not throw for more than 200 yards. The contest is in New York and Rex Ryan should have his troops ready.
Running Back
Top 200 ranking: 15
Weekly ranking: 24
Difference: -9
Spiller has been maddening to fantasy owners this season. The Buffalo Bills meet the Miami Dolphins who are coming off a bye week to prepare. Thaddeus Lewis looks to be under center for Buffalo again this week. His lack of passing will allow the Dolphins defense to focus on stopping the run. We are not expecting a high scoring game. The team that runs the ball the best should be the victor.
Top 200 ranking: 20
Weekly ranking: 25
Difference: -5
Even with the injury to Mike Goodson, we do not project Powell to have a big fantasy output against the New England Patriots. The contest shapes up to be a defensive struggle and both defenses are playing well. We like Powell's chances long-term but this is one of his worst matchups of the year.
Top 200 ranking: 18
Weekly ranking: 24
Difference: -6
Miller has split time with Daniel Thomas this season, much to the dismay of fantasy owners. The Dolphins have a big divisional game against the Bills Sunday. Buffalo has played surprisingly strong on defense, especially against the run. Miller is still a low-end fantasy starter, there are better fantasy options on many waiver wires.
Wide Receiver
Top 200 ranking: 7
Weekly ranking: 13
Difference: -6
Welker has taken to the Broncos in a very fond manner. He is a main part of the Manning-led offense. This week's game against the Indianapolis Colts will be a great test for both teams. We do not look for this game to be as high scoring as some. There is much made of Manning facing his old team, and the battle of he versus Andrew Luck, but the defenses will determine the outcome. Welker's touchdown pace could slow down starting this game.
Top 200 ranking: 15
Weekly ranking: 22
Difference: -7
Smith has emerged to become a legitimate WR1 for Baltimore. He is the lone threat in the Ravens passing attack. The game in Pittsburgh this week will be another good test for his ability to beat a defense focused on slowing down the speedy youngster. We really like the future of Smith. However, this game could be very difficult as the Steelers defense began to show some pride last week and Mike Tomlin will have his troops fired up.
Top 200 ranking: 37
Weekly ranking: 63
Difference: 26
Bowe has been a disappointment this season. Alex Smith is not force-feeding the receiver the ball the way Matt Cassel had in the past. Bowe is catching only three or four passes per week, so the upside is extremely limited. But, against a wounded Houston Texans team this week, Bowe will struggle to get open against the physical cornerbacks of the Texans. We advise sitting the Chiefs receiver this week.
Tight End
Top 200 ranking: 2
Weekly ranking: 10
Difference: -8
Gronkowski could play in this week's tilt against the New York Jets. His weekly ranking reflects a thought that we will not play a full allotment of plays, even if in the lineup. We should know more about Gronkowski's status as the weekend approaches.
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